This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://royaleapi.com/blog/crl-20-win-challenge-odds

How does this compare to wins in Global Tournaments (GT)?

While you may only lose twice in the 20-Win Challenge (20WC) you may lose four times in GT. Does this mean, you should be able to reach 40 wins in GT, if you are able to reach 20 wins in 20WC?

Definitely not! I think, it is sound to assume, that after reaching 20 wins in GT the expected win rate is pretty close to 50% for almost every player, because only top level players are able to reach 20 wins. Therefore I’d expect 20 wins in 20WC on first try to be more in the range of about 22 wins in GT. With multiple tries and players dropping out of the competition on finishing 20WC this might go down to maybe 18 wins in GT.

Does this make sense or did I miss something important?

I don’t think those numbers are quite accurate. I’ve gotten 20 wins in gt twice with ease. However, I’m struggling getting even 15 wins in this challenge. Maybe it’s the fact that I’ve faced e giant (hc to me) so often for no reason but I feel like 30 wins in gt is equivalent to the 20 win challenge.

what deck u use?

Lavaloon but it’s old meta

Why aren’t they handing out the emote this time? I got to 19 but don’t know if it’s worth it to try all over again for 20 if I don’t even get an emote

Numbers for 20-win challenge is not the same as GT. For one, GT has 5 max losses. The 20-win challenge has 3 max losses. This changes the probabilities a fair bit.

Here is a 32&31 win player. Uhm I would say if you are able to do 24-25 wins in gt for lot of time then you should be able to get 20 wins with multiple tries. With 31+ wins you should be able to get that by 1 chance. ( I took more but yea didn’t played to win at first) but also players with (consistent) 20-23 wins range in gt can reach the 20 win but will pretty hard. With player not able to reach 20 in gt chance are almost nil for 20 win in crl. Even tho I would say this is by far more easier 20win challange than the previous ones or maybe my skill are improved in last year idk.

I only got 21 wins max in a GT, and it was draft. I just hit 20 wins, 5th attempt. If you keep trying, there is hope.

What deck did you use?

When the 20 win come again ? Next season? next 3 month or next year?

it’s going to come back this time next year, it happens every year. You’ll be lucky to see it again if it happens.

LavaLoon helps a ton.

But LavaLoon is great it’s old meta and still works great with anyone that gives up mid way.